What available alternatives do I have to achieve my goal?
- Judge alternatives in terms of goal, subject in question, rules and filters, cause and effect,
human behavior, evidence, counter evidence, simplicity and opportunity cost of money,
time, other resources, effort, understanding, risk and mental stress.
- What evidence (incl. models) do I have that these alternatives are most likely to achieve
- Are they depending on time horizon or event?
- What are the likely consequences of each action? What possible outcomes can happen?
Likelihood? How desirable is each consequence?
每項行動的可能結果為何? 那些可能結果會發生? 可能性為何? 每項結果其可接受性為何? 好的壞的?
- Do I forego any future opportunities if I make a specific action now?
What are the consequences?
- Find out which alternative are most likely to achieve my goal by estimating their likely consequences
- If I do this, what will happen? Why will this not happen?
- What are the likely (logical) wanted and unwanted (or unintended) consequences 289 (quantitative and qualitative) and consequences of consequences (immediate and over the course of a long period) of each alternative! event (proposition) factoring in relevant variables?
- What are the different scenarios and outcomes that can happen? What is likely to happen short and long-term based on the evidence?
- What can help me make predictions on consequences or if something is likely to be true or false? - What must happen for the goal to be achieved? How likely is it that the necessary events will happen and happen to me? What does the probabilities favor? What will happen if I reverse the proposition?
有什麼事可以幫助我做出預測或者知道一些事情正確與否(正確或者錯誤)? 要讓目標達成有哪些事情必須要發生? 必要的事件未來發生的機率為何? 以及發生在我身上的機率為何? 如果我翻轉假設的話哪些事情會發生?
- What are the uncertainties that can significantly influence the outcome? What unintended consequences are there due to repeating effects, complications ... ? Is the net effect positive? Does the consequences predict anything else? What else does this mean?
有哪些不確定因素會大幅影響結果? 有哪些持續的影響或者複雜性會產生預期不到的後果? 總體影響的狀況是正面的嗎? 每個已發生的結果可以預測任何事情嗎? 這些結果又代表了甚麼?
- What are the consequences if this is true or false?
- Have I considered the whole system from different viewpoints? Have I considered social, financial, physical and emotional consequences? What are others likely to do? What are my experiences of earlier behavior? What happens when others do the same?
我如何自不同觀點判斷整個系統? 我有考慮社會、財務、物理和情緒性的結果嗎? 其他人可能會做甚麼事? 我對於早期行為的經驗為何? 當其他人做一樣的事情之後什麼事會發生?
如當初Bill Ackman投入Valeant很可能便是他完全忽略了社會性的結果，亦即Valeant本身Business model可能產生之社會性的反彈，另外Joel Greenblatt亦分享過其過去某次錯誤的教訓，原本僅是套利案，卻因為發現一家企業的租金上漲潛力非常大並且開始逐步要換約，其開了槓桿大幅買入，一度獲利好幾倍的報酬，卻在最終遇到911攻擊事件虧損收場，極其深刻的教訓，是個low probability之結果卻發生了。
- What is the track record (case rate, base rate frequency, variability, average rate, degree of randomness, my own experiences, environment, players, and other relevant factors for the case) on what happened (worked and not) in the past? Is there any reason to believe that this record isn't representative for what is likely to happen in the future? What can make the future a lot different than the past? What's been permanent and what hasn't?
過去的紀錄為何(事件發生率、基本發生概率的頻率、差異性、平均概率、隨機性、自己的經驗、環境、參與者、以及其他相關的因素)? 有任何理由讓你確信這些紀錄在之後可能發生的情況當中不具代表性嗎? 什麼事可以讓未來和過去產生大幅度的不同? 什麼事在過去來看是持續不變的以及什麼不是?
- How long can this continue? What is the major cause(s) now? What force(s) can make it continue, initiate a change, or stop it and why? Is it likely?
這會持續多久，以及現在最主要的原因為何? 何種力量會使其持續、產生變化或者使其停止以及為什麼? 這可能嗎?
Disprove my (or others) conclusion by thinking like a prosecutor
- Consider causes for misjudgments
- How can I test and prove that my idea and conclusion is wrong? What reasons are there why I might be wrong? Where can I find the evidence that suggest I am wrong? How credible is my evidence? What facts and evidence disagree with my conclusion/idea?
我要如何測試和驗證我的想法和結論是錯誤的? 有哪些原因可能顯示我為什麼會錯? 我可以從哪裡找到我可能錯誤的證據? 我的證據的可信度為何? 有哪些事實和證據與我的想法和結論相衝突?
- What major assumptions have I built the case on? Are they built on reality? Are their consequences logical? Has anyone proved that my assumptions are right? What are the consequences if my beliefs and assumptions are wrong?
我的判斷是依據哪些重大假設? 他們是建立在事實上嗎? 他們得出的結論具邏輯性嗎? 有哪些人證明過我的假設是正確的嗎? 如果我的信念和假設是錯誤的話，可能的結果為何?
- What have I ignored or overlooked? Better alternatives? Have I ignored evidence? Have I taken into account the limitations when humans are involved? What factors are uncertain and why? Have I just projected present trends? What have I misinterpreted? Have I used the right definitions? Did I consider and combined all the relevant factors? Have I used the appropriate measure/yardstick? Did I go wrong in the measurement? Have I confused cause and correlation? What about if my goal is shaped by what I believe is true but it isn't? Are there random or systematic errors? What other causes can explain my results? Have I considered the whole system and that interacting parts sometimes can vary in unexpected and unwanted ways?
我有忽略掉哪些事情嗎? 更好的選擇? 我有忽略掉哪些證據嗎? 我有考量到在人們參與之後的限制性嗎? 哪些因素是不確定的，為什麼? 我是否只是以現在的趨勢去預測? 我有誤會甚麼事情嗎? 我是否使用正確的定義? 我是否有考慮過並總結起來? 我是否有考慮過使用較適當的評估方式或者指標? 我在評估時是否有做錯什麼? 我是否將原因和相關性搞混了? 假設我的目標是建立在我相信的是對的，那如果後者是錯的會怎樣? 有所謂的隨機誤差或者系統性誤差嗎? 有哪些其他影響可以解釋我的結果嗎? 我有考量過全部的系統以及相互不同影響的部分其有時會以出乎預料或者不好的狀況變化嗎?
- Bias for my own ideas? Is my ego getting in the way of making an intelligent decision? Will I really beat the historical average/record? Have I looked for contrary effects?
我的想法有偏見嗎? 我在做決定時是否有將自尊心的考慮? 我可以打敗歷史平均嗎? 我有看過相反的影響嗎?
- What do I not see? What is the significance of this? Does an inversion of the assumption lead to a logical absurdity? Is the opposite more likely? Is there any contrary evidence? What evidence can prove it is false (or not achieving goal)? What experimental (or experience, observation ... ) evidence are there that it's false? More evidence in favor of that? What causes it to be false?
我沒看到甚麼? 這有多重要? 將此假設反著看是否會產生邏輯謬誤? 是否反面的狀況更可能? 有任何的反面證據嗎? 有任何證據可以證實其是錯的(或者無法達成目標)? 有任何實驗證據(或經驗、觀察等)可以顯示其是錯的? 更多的證據支持他? 有什麼原因可以使其變成錯的?
- Meaning? Can I show that the consequences of it being true are unbelievable? What is the implied effect if I trace it out mathematically? Would the opposite of the statement be more likely? If yes, the proposition is probably false.
其代表的意義? 我可以顯示出此結果是正確的機率是零嗎? 如果我用數學去追蹤的話有什麼可能的影響嗎? 反向的敘述更可能發生嗎? 假如可能，這項假設便可能是錯的。
What is the downside?
- How can I be hurt? What could possible go wrong? What can turn this into a mistake? What would the consequences be?
我要如何會被傷害? 有什麼可能會讓事情變糟? 什麼會使這件事變成錯誤? 結果會是如何?
- How often do things go wrong? Surprise factors? What can happen that will dramatically change the outcome?
事情有多常變糟? 意外性的因子? 有甚麼事情可以大幅改變結果?
- What is the worst thing that could happen - the nightmare scenario? How likely is that? What will I do if it does? What are the consequences if things go from bad to worse? And what are then the consequences?
最差的結果是甚麼? 亦即罪惡夢的情況是甚麼? 其可能性為何? 如果其發生了我會如何? 如果事情從糟糕持續惡化下去結果會是如何? 再想一次結果可能會如何?
- What are the consequences if I get two or three forces acting in concert against me? Which alternatives net effects are least worse? - Execution risk? - What do I least like? What am I least sure of?
如果有兩到三個力與我的行動衝突其結果會是如何? 有哪項其他選擇其受傷害的力道最小? 執行風險? 有什麼是我最不想要的? 有什麼是我最不確定的?
- Can an advantage give me unwanted consequences? How do I lose an advantage?
- How can I structure the "system" to minimize the influence of negatives? Antidotes to what I don't want happen? Do I have a backup plan for surprises? Can I correct it? What rules can I install to achieve goal and avoid non-goal? Is there a built-in safety factor?
我要如何組織一項系統使其最小化反面的影響? 有什麼解藥能避免我想發生的事情? 如果未預期之事件發生了我是否有備案? 我可以糾正此錯誤? 有什麼法則我可以施行使得能夠達到目標並避免非目標? 裡面有安全邊際嗎?
What are the consequences if I am wrong?
- What key thing am I betting on? Do I risk what is important for me for something of relative low utility for me?
後者項是在高價、泡沫時 short put，以及很有錢了還開槓桿賭博。
- What is the cost (dollars, time, mental stress etc) of being wrong weighted against the benefit or value of being right compared to the next best available opportunity?
- If I do this because I believe the consequences are in my best interest/it's true but I turn out wrong/it is false, what are the short- and long-term consequences (actual loss and opportunity cost loss) for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?
- If I don't do this because I believe the consequences is not in my best interest/it's false but I turn out wrong/it's true, what are the short- and long-term consequences for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?
- If I don't take a decision at all now because I don't believe it is necessary but I am wrong, what are the short-and long-term consequences for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?
What is the value?
- What is the utility or preference of each of these alternatives to me? Which alternative is most likely to achieve my goal and ultimate objective? Is it really more attractive than the other choices I have?
我對這些選項的偏好以及其對我的意義是甚麼? 有什麼選項其最可能達成我的目標? 他真的比我的其他選擇更吸引人嗎?
- What can I use as criteria to judge my alternatives against each other?
- What do I like best if I weigh the alternatives against each other by assigning their characteristics numerical values?
- Will it make a difference? Make an impact? How willing am I to accept certain outcomes?
這會產生不同嗎? 產生影響? 我會想接受這項特定的結果嗎?
What yardstick can be used to measure progress or to measure things against?
- What yardstick(s) do I use? What is the yardstick by which the decision is made?
- How can I easily measure to what degree my goal are being achieved? What indicators can I track?
- Does the "system" give people an incentive to behave in a way so that my goal will be achieved? Or does it work against the goal?
- Have I installed some kind of control stations and rules? Why is this the right rule? What are the consequences if I don't install this rule (or change my way of doing something)? What administrative and practical actions must I do due to the rule? How much time will it take to follow the rule? Can I control how I follow the rule? Can I install a time-limited rule? Where does the rules not work?
我有設定任法則或者控制點嗎? 這為什麼是正確的法則? 如果我不遵照這些法則(或者我改變原來自己的方式)會有什麼結果? 我為何要遵照法則需做哪些實際和管理的行動? 要遵照這些法則要花多少時間? 我可以自己控制要怎麼遵行法則嗎? 我可以設定有時間限制的法則嗎? 哪些地方這些法則不適用?
- Is another decision contingent on a specific event happening? Have I evaluated the issue as it exists today? Is the underlying rationale for the decision still there? What new evidence is there that can change the likelihood? Does my way of measuring progress give any clue of what is likely to happen in the future? Events - relevant or irrelevant? Does it make any difference for my goal (independent of time horizon)?
是否另一個決定取決於某件事情是否發生? 我是否以現存的事項去評估? 是否決定時的基本原則仍在? 有哪些新證據的存在可以改變可能性? 我評估進度的方式是否有給予任何未來可能發生什麼的提示? 這項事件 - 相關或者不相關? 這對我的目標有影響嗎?
Post mortem or learning from mistakes
- How well did it or didn't it work out? Did I act? Did I do what I said? What did I think at the time? Original reasons compared to reality?
這件事過去進行的好嗎? 我有行動嗎? 我有做我所說的嗎? 我當時怎麼想? 最初的原因相對最終的事實的差異?
- Why did I go wrong? How? Where? Opportunity cost?
我為什麼錯了? 怎麼錯的? 哪裡錯了? 機會成本?
- How can I figure out if this is going to continue? Have I acted on my mistakes? How act to not repeat? What should I have done and didn't do?
What should I concentrate on? What must I improve? What must I learn?
如果之後發生了的話我要怎麼發現? 我是否有對我的錯誤做出行動? 要怎麼做讓其不會發生? 我應該怎麼做或者哪些不要做? 我應該要集中心力在什麼? 我要改善什麼? 我必須要學習什麼?
WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES CONSIDERING HUMAN BEHAVIOR?
What is causing me to do this?
What are my present environment and my state of mind? What is rewarding for me to do/say if I want to avoid pain? What do I perceive to be the consequences for me? Are they painful or pleasurable? What psychological tendencies will influence me? Are they likely to cause a misjudgment?
我現在的環境和心態是甚麼? 我如果要避免痛苦有什麼獎勵會讓我去做或說的? 我如何看待此對我的結果? 他們是痛苦的或是令人喜愛的? 有哪些心理因素會影響我? 他們會造成誤判嗎?
What is the context?
What does the environment and participants (incl. size) look like? Who is the decision-maker and what are his criteria for making decisions? Who benefits and who pay? Who is responsible for outcome? Who and what are influencing the participant's perception of reality?
環境和參與者(包括其大小)看起來如何? 誰是決定者以及他做決定的標準是甚麼? 誰受益以及誰付錢? 誰要為結果負責? 誰以及甚麼影響參予者對事實的觀察和感覺?
Can I judge him?
Can I judge his character? What are his experiences? What temporary or permanent characteristics influence him (age, cultural background, health, mood ... )? What environmental (present internal and external) or situational factors influence him? Does he want to sell me something? What is in his self-interest to do? What is logical for him to do? What is rewarding for him to do if he want to avoid pain? What does he perceive as painful? What does he fear and why? What does he want more of or what does he not want to be taken away? What "resources" motivates him? His health, job, family, position, reputation, status, power? What would give him an incentive or disincentive? What reward or penalty system causes his behavior? What is he rewarded (perceived) for doing? What is he punished (perceived) for doing? How is he measured? How does he perceive the consequences of non-goal? Is it to his advantage/interest to believe (or not to believe) something?
我可否判斷他的性格? 他的經歷是甚麼? 有什麼暫時或永久的個性影響他? (年齡、文化背景、健康、心情) 什麼環境(內部和外部)或者什麼環境因素影響了他? 他想賣我甚麼嗎? 他的自利動機是甚麼? 什麼對他來說是符合邏輯去做的? 如果他想避免痛苦，有什麼會促使他去做這件事? 他把什麼看待是痛苦的? 他害怕什麼? 為什麼? 他想要更多的什麼? 以及甚麼是他不想被剝奪的? 有什麼來源引發他? 他的健康? 職業? 家庭? 職位? 名聲? 位階? 權力? 什麼會給他動機或者反動機使他不願去做? 哪些獎勵或者懲罰促使他的行為? 他被獎勵(已觀察)做甚麼? 他被懲罰(已觀察)做甚麼? 他怎麼被評估測量? 他怎麼觀察非目標的結果? 相信什麼/不相信什麼 對他有利嗎?
What are the psychological tendencies and shortcuts that influence him and can cause misjudgment?
What bias affects his conclusions? What external influences is there, that will likely influence him? What temptations are there that appeal to his self-interest? What activates his behavior?
甚麼樣的偏見影響他的結論? 哪些外部因素可能影響他? 哪些誘惑使他會朝自己的利益走? 什麼激發了他的行為?
What are the consequences?
What are the consequences for me? Will my goal still be achieved? Is what is rewarding for him also rewarding for me? Is the system set up so that the relevant participant's interest coincides with my goal? Does it "pay him" to make the wrong decision? Does he understand the consequences of his behavior? What are the short-and long-term consequences for him? What are the lines of responsibility? Does he have the responsibility for the consequences? What happens when others do the same?
對我來說結果是甚麼? 我的目標仍然會達成嗎? 獎勵他的事情也獎勵我嗎? 此系統之設定是否與相關人的利益和我的目標一致? 這是否給予他利益使他做出錯誤的決定? 他是否了解他的行為的結果? 對他來說有那些短期和長期的結果? 他對結果有責任嗎? 別人做一樣的事情的話會如何?
Filter 1 - Can I understand the business - predictability?
- Reasons for demand - How certain am I that (and can explain why) people are likely to continue buy this type of product or service in the future? What has happened in the past and what is likely to happen in the future? Cyclically in demand? Capacity versus demand?
需求的原因? 我要如何確定(以及解釋為什麼)人們未來會持續買這類產品和服務? 過去發生甚麼以及未來可能發生甚麼? 需求是有循環性的嗎? 量和需求的差異?
- Return characteristics - Industry and company return characteristics and change over the last ten years?
- Industry structure - No of competitors and size? Who dictate the terms in this industry? What is needed to make money in this industry? Position within the industry? Do I know who is going to make the money in this market and why?
產業結構，競爭者的數量和規模? 誰確定這個產業的條款? 在這個產業需要做甚麼事情才能獲利? 公司在產業的地位? 我知道誰會在這個產業賺到錢以及為什麼?
- Real Customer - Who decides what to buy and what are his decision-criteria?
Filter 2 - Does it look like the business has some kind of sustainable competitive advantage?
- Competitive Advantage - How certain am I that (and can explain why) they are likely to buy the product or service from the company rather than from someone else? Are the reasons virtually unchanged from what they were ten years ago? Are these motivations likely to be unchanged over the next ten years?
競爭優勢，我要如何確定(以及解釋)他們可能買這家公司的產品和服務而非其他家的? 這項原因相對10年前是否有所改變? 這些動機在未來10年是否會改變?
- Value - How strong and sustainable is this advantage? Have the advantages become stronger and more durable over the years? What can destroy or reduce them? Barriers to entry? Brand loyalty? Vulnerable to change in demand or prices? Easy to copy? Short product life cycle? Customer cost and incentive to switch supplier? Annual cost differential against competition? Capital investments needed? Bargaining power? Obsolescence risk? New customer alternatives? Change in buying habits or power? Competitor potential to undercut prices assuming same cost structure? What is needed to make sure the advantages stay sustainable? Growth opportunities left? Is the demand for the product likely to grow? Untapped unit volume demand? Pricing power?
價值，這項優勢的強度和持續性為何? 這項優勢隨著時間是否有更強以及更堅韌? 是甚麼能後摧毀或者降低其競爭優勢? 進入障礙? 品牌認同? 對於需求和價格的改變無力招架? 可能被模仿? 較短的產品生命週期? 對顧客的成本壓力以及其是否有動機去更換供應商? 年度費用與競爭者不同? 需要資本支出? 議價能力? 過時的風險? 新的取代品? 買進習性和能力的改變對其影響? 成長的機會? 對產品的需求可能提升嗎? 未開發的需求? 定價能力?
- Profitability - Can the advantage be translated into profitability and why? How does the company make money? How much capital is needed to produce incremental revenues? Financial characteristics - return on capital (operating margins and capital turnover), gross margins, sales growth, cost- and capital structure and efficiency? Normalized free cash flow? Advantages of scale? Critical variable?
獲利能力，此項競爭優勢可以轉化成獲利性嗎? 為什麼? 公司如何賺錢? 要有多少的資本投入以產生進一步的營收? 財務狀況， ROC? (OP margin 和資本周轉率)，毛利率，營收成長，成本和資本結構以及效率? 正常化的自由現金流量? 優勢的規模? 重要的變數?
Filter 3 - Able and honest management?
- Is the management composed of competent and honest people that understands and focuses on creation of value?
Filter 4 - Is the price right?
- Can I buy at a price that provides a good return with a huge margin of safety measured against other available alternatives and with evidence from facts and figures?
Filter 5 - Disprove
- How can the business get killed? If the company could kill one of its competitors, who would it be and why? If the company would go away for 5 years which competitor would they bet on and why? How resistant is the business to adversity? Assume the company paid out all its equity capital, would it still have any value? Could someone with the access to billions of dollars and talent, successfully compete with the company? How much damage could a competitor do if he doesn't care about returns? Recession sensitivity? Execution risk? Will new technology help or hurt?
這個產業要如何被摧毀? 如果這家公司要消滅其中一個競爭對手，會是誰以及為什麼? 如果這家公司要離開5年他們會投資在哪家公司以及為什麼? 產業對於逆境的抵抗力? 假設這家公司將所有資本都還給股東他還有其他價值嗎? 一個有金錢和優秀人士的公司可以成功地與這家公司競爭嗎? 如果競爭者不在乎獲利他可以在多大程度下和這家公司競爭? 對於蕭條的敏感度? 執行風險? 新的科技會對他造成幫助或傷害?
Filter 6 - What are the consequences if I'm wrong?