Cogitator

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/24/warren-buffett-berkshire-letter/

今年的BRK年報搶先在Fortunes網站上曝光，看完真的是收穫滿滿，巴菲特總是能夠用最簡單的概念告訴大家什麼是投資。

而今年巴菲特又重提了指數型基金的投資，以下節錄相關部分並粗略翻譯

I have good news for these nonprofessionals: The typical investor doesn't need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th century, the Dow Jones industrial index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. The goal of the nonprofessional should not be to pick winners -- neither he nor his "helpers" can do that -- but should rather be to own a cross section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.

對於非專業投資人，巴菲特認為他們不必有這些技巧(指上述巴菲特提到他以內在價值和安全邊際判斷買房子、股票以至於所有金融商品的方法)，實際上，美國企業隨著時間的前進總是會表現的很好，在20世紀，DJI從66點上升到11497點，並且增加了許多股息，21世紀我們會看到更進一步的增加，而且肯定是很大的幅度。對於非專業投資人他們的目標不是去選擇到一個贏家，甚至他們的投資顧問也做不到這一點，他們最需要做的事情是擁有一個籃子的企業並且確信這些企業以後會有好的績效，一個低管理費的S&P500 指數型基金就可以做到這一點。


That's the "what" of investing for the nonprofessional. The "when" is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs's observation: "A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.") The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the "know-nothing" investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better long-term results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.

以上所述是非專業投資人要投資"什麼"，但是"什麼時候"投資也很重要，對於非專業投資人最大的威脅便是在最極端樂觀的狀態下進入市場(記住Biggs's的名言:牛市就像是做愛一樣，總是在它結束前感覺最美妙)。 一個非專業投資人對於進入市場時機錯誤的解藥，是在消息不好並且股市從高點回落時持續累積持股並且持有很長一段時間都不要賣出。ㄧ個非專業投資人若進行最分散的投資以及讓他買股的成本降到最低，他就肯定會獲得滿意的報酬。事實上，一個業餘投資人若對他自己的弱點很明瞭的話，他會在長期表現的比一個懂很多但是對於自己的缺點不瞭解的專職投資人好

My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I've laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife's benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the 10 years following the closing of my estate.) My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard's. (VFINX)) I believe the trust's long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors -- whether pension funds, institutions, or individuals -- who employ high-fee managers.

巴菲特提到在他過世之後，其所擁有的所有BRK股票都會捐贈給慈善團體(這在幾年前就曾經開過記者會了，主要是捐獻給Bill & Melinda Gates foundation和他兒女創辦的慈善團體)，而另外也會將一部分的現金留給他太太的信託帳戶，他給該信託的操作守則非常簡單，將10%放入短期政府債券，而90%放入低手續費的S&P500指數型基金(他附註建議買Vanguard 出品的)。

這已經不知道是第幾次巴菲特推薦非專業投資人長期買進指數型基金並且持有了，其實每年年報最後一部份，巴菲特總是會推薦他當年度看過覺得評價很高的書籍，多數是有關投資的書，也有少數是其他的主題相關類別，我之前有整理過寫一篇文章，顯見巴菲特是一個終身學習的人，縱使其投資已達如此成就，其依然每年都在看相關的書籍並且還為他的股東以及閱讀其年報的學習者整理出其中最好的。而在書單裡面，John Bogle，先鋒基金創辦人以及指數型基金發明者寫的書總是在巴菲特的推薦名單裡，可以顯見巴菲特是多麼的認同John Bogle的理念，此外，他也總是在提到非專業投資人應長期持有指數型基金時，推薦Vanguard系列，主因就是先鋒基金的手續費和管理費總是最低的。